BHI 3.1·Q2 2026 Bulletin
Published Jun 4 2026·Spearman ρ = 0.77·Validation: preliminary
Today's bulletin →
Movers · Q2 2026 · Jun 4 2026
PLATFORM PROFILESCOM.NR

M-Pesa

8.16
B-index (V3.1)
BLACK HOLE
Capture2.316
Escape0.284
Key Structural Insight

91% Kenya mobile money

Eleven-Parameter Profile

5DATAMEMACTPROCNETCLOSEPORTSUBFALLORGMOM
Data Depth8/10
Memory8/10
Action9/10
Process10/10
Network9/10
Closeness9/10
Portability2/10
Substitutability3/10
Human Fallback3/10
Org Depth8/10
Momentum5/10
Capture Escape Extended

V3.1 Decomposition

ComponentValueFormula
CES₄ capture core0.8731CES(d, m, a, p)
Knowledge synergy σₖ0.8000√(d · m)
Operability synergy σₒ0.9487√(a · p)
Synergy boost1.26231 + 0.3·(σₖ + σₒ)/2
Org-depth multiplier1.40001 + 0.5·o
Momentum multiplier1.15001 + 0.3·t
Total Capture2.3155c·(1+0.5n)·core·syn·org·mom
CES₃ escape core0.2644CES(x, s, h)
Feedback attenuation0.6944max(0.3, 1 − 0.35·core)
Total Escape0.2836ε + escCore · feedback
B = Capture / Escape8.162.316 / 0.284

Scoring Rationale

Parameter Sensitivity

MARGINAL B-INDEX CHANGE PER ±1 SCORE SHIFT
CLOSE9
+1.81
PORT2
-1.61
FALL3
-1.28
SUB3
-1.28
DATA8
+0.73
MEM8
+0.73
ACT9
+0.69
ORG8
+0.58
NET9
+0.56
MOM5
+0.43
PROC10
+0.33
+ raises B (deepens lock-in) lowers B (aids escape)

Comparable PlatformsFintech & Payments (12 peers)

#PlatformTickerB-indexZone
01VisaV8.82BLACK HOLEProfile →
02MastercardMA8.14BLACK HOLEProfile →
03NubankNU5.21BLACK HOLEProfile →
04AdyenADYEN.AS5.10BLACK HOLEProfile →
05StripePrivate3.67BLACK HOLEProfile →
06PlaidPrivate2.89BLACK HOLEProfile →
07RevolutPrivate2.87BLACK HOLEProfile →
08Block (Square)XYZ2.81BLACK HOLEProfile →
09WiseWISE.L1.80EVENT HORIZONProfile →
10MarqetaMQ1.52EVENT HORIZONProfile →
11RobinhoodHOOD1.16TRANSITIONProfile →
12PayPalPYPL1.14TRANSITIONProfile →