Investment Signal
Does structural lock-in predict equity performance? We test whether BHI scores correlate with stock returns, operating margins, and revenue growth across 141 publicly-traded platforms.
How the investment signal changed when the universe expanded from 76 to 141 publicly-traded platforms. The Q4−Q1 spread widened by +4.2pp — structural lock-in's return premium grew stronger with a larger, more diverse sample.
| Metric | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universe (public) | 76 | 141 | +65 |
| Q4 − Q1 spread | +13.4% | +17.6% | +4.2pp |
| Spearman ρ (B vs return) | 0.178 | 0.137 | -0.041 |
| Capacity (est.) | $245B | $784B | +$539B |
| BHI platforms total | 100 | 184 | +84 |
| Sectors | 12 | 18 | +6 |
Note: Spearman ρ declined as expected — broader universe includes more non-public-equity platforms (telecoms, government infra) where B and stock return are structurally unrelated. The widening spread (+4.2pp) is the stronger signal: structural lock-in's return premium survives sample expansion.
B-Index vs 1-year stock return
Positive slope but heavy noise. The fit is dominated by a small number of high-B, high-return franchises.
B-Index vs operating margin
Platforms in the upper BHI zones earn structurally higher operating margins — the financial expression of structural lock-in.
Parameter attribution to the Q4 − Q1 spread
Each bar is the parameter's Q4−Q1 delta. Coloured dots indicate the parameter family.
Cumulative return, indexed to 1.00
Six months, equal-weighted, no transaction costs. Q4 is top BHI quartile, Q1 is bottom.
Top quartile · current basket
| # | Platform | Zone | B-Index | 1Y Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FAA NextGen | Black Hole | 12.20 | +0.0% |
| 02 | National Grid UK | Black Hole | 11.27 | +14.6% |
| 03 | TSMC | Black Hole | 10.91 | +119.7% |
| 04 | Palantir | Black Hole | 9.66 | +26.9% |
| 05 | ASML | Black Hole | 9.62 | +130.9% |
| 06 | Reliance Jio | Black Hole | 9.18 | -9.0% |
| 07 | Visa | Black Hole | 8.82 | -13.5% |
| 08 | China Mobile | Black Hole | 8.64 | -4.1% |
| 09 | Amazon | Black Hole | 8.40 | +23.4% |
| 10 | Kakao | Black Hole | 8.32 | -4.0% |
| 11 | NVIDIA (CUDA) | Black Hole | 8.29 | +59.2% |
| 12 | Mastercard | Black Hole | 8.14 | -18.4% |
| 13 | Amazon Marketplace | Black Hole | 7.77 | +23.4% |
| 14 | ICE | Black Hole | 7.40 | -20.3% |
Integrate BHI into your research workflow
Public API (REST/JSON) for programmatic access to all scores, decompositions, and quarterly updates. Commercial redistribution licensed at institutional tier.
Caveats
- Cross-section, not time series. Single BHI release. Causal inference requires longitudinal data.
- Confounds. High-BHI firms are disproportionately large-cap and tech-sector.
- Return correlation is weak. ρ = 0.18 is statistically weak. Margin correlation (ρ = 0.32) is stronger.
- Single scorer. Inter-rater reliability validation pending.
- Not investment advice. BHI is a structural-fact instrument.
Stock returns: Yahoo Finance API, TTM through June 4, 2026. Fundamentals: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q). BHI scores: V3.1 model, 141 platforms. All data CC-BY 4.0 at github.com/Joingithubstyle/blackholeindex.