Investment Signal
Does structural lock-in predict equity performance? We test whether BHI scores correlate with stock returns, operating margins, and revenue growth across 141 publicly-traded platforms.
Measured 5 July 2026; not recomputed since. The signal was computed on 5 July 2026 over a 141-platform public universe, with fundamentals pulled the same day (5 July 2026) on a trailing-twelve-month basis. The BHI release named in the strip at the top of this page is later than this measurement: that label is the index release, not the date of these market figures. Note also that Q1 to Q4 on this page are quartiles of the BHI score, not calendar quarters.
How the investment signal moved across the quarter on a stable 141-platform public universe. The Q4−Q1 return spread narrowed to +3.4pp (from +17.6pp) as a broad market drawdown compressed trailing-12-month returns across the board. The operating-margin premium held: top-quartile-B platforms still out-earn the bottom quartile by +19.8pp — the more durable structural signal when price returns turn negative.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universe (public) | 141 | 141 | +0 |
| Q4 − Q1 spread | +17.6% | +3.4% | -14.2pp |
| Spearman ρ (B vs return) | 0.137 | 0.063 | -0.074 |
| B vs op-margin ρ | 0.293 | 0.293 | -0.000 |
| BHI platforms total | 184 | 184 | — |
| Score changes | 10 | 34 | +24 |
Note: the return spread compressed this quarter because trailing-12-month equity returns turned negative market-wide (top-quartile-B annualized -10.6%, universe -9.4%) — a market-beta effect, not a breakdown of the lock-in thesis. The B-vs-operating-margin correlation (ρ = 0.293) remains the strongest cross-sectional signal: structural lock-in shows up in fundamentals even when price returns are risk-off.
B-Index vs 1-year stock return
Positive slope but heavy noise. The fit is dominated by a small number of high-B, high-return franchises.
B-Index vs operating margin
Platforms in the upper BHI zones earn structurally higher operating margins — the financial expression of structural lock-in.
Parameter attribution to the Q4 − Q1 spread
Each bar is the parameter's Q4−Q1 delta. Coloured dots indicate the parameter family.
Cumulative return, indexed to 1.00
Six months, equal-weighted, no transaction costs. Q4 is top BHI quartile, Q1 is bottom.
Top quartile · current basket
| # | Platform | Zone | B-Index | 1Y Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | TSMC | Black Hole | 12.28 | +89.5% |
| 02 | FAA NextGen | Black Hole | 12.20 | -0.1% |
| 03 | National Grid UK | Black Hole | 11.27 | +20.1% |
| 04 | Palantir | Black Hole | 9.90 | -7.1% |
| 05 | ASML | Black Hole | 9.62 | +125.4% |
| 06 | Reliance Jio | Black Hole | 9.18 | -15.4% |
| 07 | Visa | Black Hole | 8.82 | +1.5% |
| 08 | China Mobile | Black Hole | 8.64 | -10.8% |
| 09 | Amazon | Black Hole | 8.40 | +8.6% |
| 10 | Kakao | Black Hole | 8.32 | -40.9% |
| 11 | NVIDIA (CUDA) | Black Hole | 8.29 | +23.1% |
| 12 | Mastercard | Black Hole | 8.14 | -4.5% |
| 13 | Amazon Marketplace | Black Hole | 7.77 | +8.6% |
| 14 | ICE | Black Hole | 7.40 | -27.4% |
Integrate BHI into your research workflow
Public API (REST/JSON) for programmatic access to all scores, decompositions, and quarterly updates. Scores are CC BY 4.0 — free commercial use with attribution; the institutional tier adds early access, priority support and license certainty.
Caveats
- Cross-section, not time series. Single BHI release. Causal inference requires longitudinal data.
- Confounds. High-BHI firms are disproportionately large-cap and tech-sector.
- Return correlation is weak. ρ = 0.18 is statistically weak. Margin correlation (ρ = 0.32) is stronger.
- Single scorer. Inter-rater reliability validation pending.
- Not investment advice. BHI is a structural-fact instrument.
Stock returns: Yahoo Finance API, TTM through July 5, 2026. Fundamentals: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q). BHI scores: V3.1 model, 141 platforms. All data CC-BY 4.0 at github.com/Joingithubstyle/blackholeindex.