§ 08 · INVESTMENT SIGNAL · EMPIRICAL

Investment Signal

Does structural lock-in predict equity performance? We test whether BHI scores correlate with stock returns, operating margins, and revenue growth across 76 publicly-traded platforms.

Methodology note: All figures are computed from real market data (Yahoo Finance, SEC filings). This is an observational cross-section, not investment advice. See the paper §7 for limitations.

Q4 − Q1 spread

+13.4%

trailing 12 months · 76 platforms

Information ratio

0.55

Q4 vs universe · 8.3% TE

B vs op. margin · ρ

0.321

strongest cross-sectional signal · n = 41

Sharpe (Q4)

2.84

annualised · Rf = 5%

Max drawdown Q4

-2.6%

vs -5.4% Q1 · vs -4.9% universe

Long-short Sharpe

0.71

Q4 − Q1 portfolio

Capacity (est.)

≈ $245B

Q4 total cap · 1% position

Q4 − Q1 op margin

+30.2 pp

42.8% vs 12.6%

Useful ToolGrowing GravityTransitionEvent HorizonBlack Hole

Figure 2.1 · Returns

B-Index vs 1-year stock return

Positive slope but heavy noise. The fit is dominated by a small number of high-B, high-return franchises.

SPEARMAN ρ · 0.178n = 76WINDOW · APR 2025 → APR 2026

STRONGEST SIGNAL

Figure 2.2 · Margins

B-Index vs operating margin

Platforms in the upper BHI zones earn structurally higher operating margins — the financial expression of structural lock-in.

SPEARMAN ρ · 0.321n = 41STRONGEST CROSS-SECTIONAL SIGNAL

Figure 3.1 · Decomposition

Parameter attribution to the Q4 − Q1 spread

Each bar is the parameter's Q4−Q1 delta. Coloured dots indicate the parameter family.

CAPTUREESCAPEEXTENDED

Figure 4.1 · Equity curve

Cumulative return, indexed to 1.00

Six months, equal-weighted, no transaction costs. Q4 is top BHI quartile, Q1 is bottom.

Q4 · TOP BHIQ1 · BOTTOMUNIVERSE · EW

Download CSV Download JSON Methodology

§ 05 · Holdings

Top quartile · current basket

#	Platform	Zone	B-Index	1Y Return
01	TSMC	Black Hole	10.91	+120.9%
02	Palantir	Black Hole	9.66	+11.9%
03	ASML	Black Hole	9.62	+108.5%
04	Visa	Black Hole	8.82	-5.1%
05	Amazon	Black Hole	8.40	+39.5%
06	NVIDIA (CUDA)	Black Hole	8.29	+74.3%
07	Mastercard	Black Hole	8.14	-10.1%
08	Amazon Marketplace	Black Hole	7.77	+39.5%
09	SAP	Black Hole	7.21	-43.8%
10	AWS	Black Hole	6.85	+39.5%
11	Microsoft	Black Hole	6.64	-6.3%
12	Apple App Store	Black Hole	6.13	+32.1%
13	JPMorgan Chase	Black Hole	6.13	+24.1%
14	MercadoLibre	Black Hole	5.87	-21.4%

INSTITUTIONAL ACCESS

Integrate BHI into your research workflow

Public API (REST/JSON) for programmatic access to all scores, decompositions, and quarterly updates. Commercial redistribution licensed at institutional tier.

$ curl blackholeindex.com/api/bhi
{ "instrument":"Black Hole Index", "count":100, "platforms":[...] }

Licensing & pricing →Contact

Caveats

Cross-section, not time series. Single BHI release. Causal inference requires longitudinal data.
Confounds. High-BHI firms are disproportionately large-cap and tech-sector.
Return correlation is weak. ρ = 0.18 is statistically weak. Margin correlation (ρ = 0.32) is stronger.
Single scorer. Inter-rater reliability validation pending.
Not investment advice. BHI is a structural-fact instrument.

DATA SOURCES

Stock returns: Yahoo Finance API, TTM through April 30, 2026. Fundamentals: SEC filings (10-K, 10-Q). BHI scores: V3.1 model. All data CC-BY 4.0 at github.com/Joingithubstyle/blackholeindex.