Black Hole Index — Quarterly Brief
The Q2 2026 release scores 184 platforms on the eleven-parameter CES rubric with V3.1 introducing the org-depth multiplier, momentum amplifier, and a formalised ε = 0.1 floor. The headline finding: infrastructure platforms (EDA, TSMC, ASML) exhibit lock-in an order of magnitude higher than attention-based platforms (Netflix, Dogecoin), despite the latter commanding larger user bases or market caps.
Highest-B platforms
| Platform | Sector | B (V3.1) | Zone | Structural driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Social | 17.03 | Black Hole | Super-app: identity, payments, government — all through one system | |
| Synopsys/Cadence (EDA) | Critical Infra | 12.97 | Black Hole | No chip design without EDA — zero substitutability (s=1) |
| TSMC | Big Tech | 10.91 | Black Hole | No advanced chips without TSMC — monopoly foundry |
| Palantir | SaaS | 9.66 | Black Hole | Org-depth 10/10 — removal requires structural reorganisation |
| ASML | Big Tech | 9.62 | Black Hole | Sole EUV lithography supplier globally |
The structural read
Infrastructure compounds; attention decays.
The top 5 are all infrastructure — not consumer apps. Netflix (325M subs, B = 1.00) proves massive scale with near-zero switching costs produces fragile revenue.
AI lock-in is real but stratified.
Copilot (B = 4.73) outscores ChatGPT (B = 1.96) by 2.4× despite lower user preference — organisational embedding, not quality, drives lock-in. Claude (B = 1.49) has the lowest lock-in by design.
Crypto: market cap ≠ lock-in.
Dogecoin ($15B, B = 0.17) — near-zero structural lock-in. Solana (B = 4.83) — developer ecosystem creates real capture. Bitcoin (B = 1.82) — network effects without deep process integration.
Validation: preliminary.
Spearman ρ = 0.77 (p < 0.001, n = 14) against annual retention rates. Single-evaluator scoring — inter-rater reliability study pending. BHI is at a pre-empirical stage.