EXECUTIVE BRIEF

Black Hole Index™

A quantitative structural lock-in measurement instrument for digital platforms

The Problem

No standardized tool exists for measuring how difficult it is to leave a platform. Regulators, investors, and policymakers assess lock-in qualitatively — through narrative, surveys, and ad hoc expert testimony.

FTC v. Meta (Nov 2025): FTC lost because it could not quantitatively prove lock-in. Both sides deployed experts reaching opposite conclusions.

EU DMA: Designates gatekeepers by size (revenue, market cap, users) — not by structural lock-in.

UK CMA: Building Strategic Market Status methodology under DMCCA 2024 with no established lock-in framework.

Investment analysis: Morningstar rates moats qualitatively (None/Narrow/Wide). No quantitative lock-in score exists.

The Solution

BHI produces a single number — B = Capture / Escape — measuring structural lock-in for any platform. 11 parameters scored on anchored 0-10 rubrics, CES aggregation with synergy corrections. 100 platforms scored across 12 sectors.

B < 1 = users can leave freely. B > 2.5 = structurally trapped. B > 5 = infrastructure-level lock-in.

Validation

Spearman ρ

0.77

p < 0.001

Platforms

with observable data

Coverage

100

platforms scored

Tested against real-world retention data from SEC filings, CIRP surveys, and industry reports. Exceeds the empirical evidence HDI and HHI had at introduction.

Key Findings

Platform	B Score	Lock-in driver
WeChat	17.0	IS mobile internet in China
Synopsys/Cadence (EDA)	13.0	Cannot design chips without them
Palantir	9.7	Classified data + government procurement
Visa	8.8	4.9B credentials, neither side can leave
SAP	7.2	$100M+ migration cost, 3-5 year timeline
MS Copilot	4.7	Worst NPS (-19.8), highest AI lock-in
ChatGPT	2.0	Popular but structurally replaceable
Netflix	1.0	325M subscribers, near-zero lock-in

Lock-in is not about quality, popularity, or user satisfaction. It is about structural escape cost.

Applications

Antitrust enforcement: Quantitative evidence for merger reviews, gatekeeper designations, and remedies design.

Investment analysis: Identifying durable moats vs illusory ones — high B correlates with high retention (ρ = 0.77).

Technology sovereignty: Measuring national dependency on foreign platforms (TSMC B=10.9, SWIFT B=6.8).

Platform strategy: Competitive positioning based on structural lock-in vs product quality.

Full paper →Interactive calculator →100 platform rankings →Empirical validation →

Contact

Ivan Savich — Creator, Black Hole Index™
ivan.savich@blackholeindex.com
linkedin.com/in/isavich · @BlackHoleIndex

SSRN Abstract ID 6470358 · blackholeindex.com · 2026