Rankings

Key findingThe AI-platform layer has fully crossed B = 1, with IDE-resident segment (Copilot, Cursor) clearing B = 1.7.

Key findingStablecoins (USDT, USDC) register the highest B in the entire universe. Bitcoin remains a useful tool by structure.

Key findingCrypto infrastructure lock-in follows a clear hierarchy: oracle standards (Chainlink) and exchange infrastructure (Binance) at the top, lending protocols (Aave) in the middle, and NFT marketplaces (OpenSea) eroding at the bottom. The fork myth persists in DeFi — but liquidity, integrations, and oracle dependencies cannot be forked.

Key findingWeChat represents the theoretical maximum (p=10, h=1). WhatsApp achieves the highest escape cost through messaging ubiquity. TikTok proves 1.56B MAU with 1hr 35min daily means nothing structurally when the algorithm, not the graph, drives retention. X demonstrates active erosion: rising substitutability from Threads and Bluesky is measurably decreasing B quarter over quarter.

Key findingTSMC (p=10, s=1) and ASML (p=10, s=1, h=1) represent the two deepest structural lock-in positions in the global economy. NVIDIA CUDA has locked millions of developers with no viable migration path. These three companies form a chain: ASML makes the lithography, TSMC uses it to make chips, NVIDIA designs those chips to run CUDA. Break any link and AI development stops globally.

Key findingAWS (p=10) and Salesforce (o=9) represent the extremes of cloud lock-in: infrastructure dependency vs organizational embedding. Zoom proves that massive daily usage with high substitutability produces commodity economics. Snowflake demonstrates data gravity — petabytes of accumulated data are the ultimate switching cost barrier.

Key findingBloomberg Terminal is the deepest structural lock-in in our entire dataset outside TSMC and ASML. SWIFT (p=10) demonstrates that cooperative infrastructure can create even deeper lock-in than corporate platforms. JPMorgan and Goldman prove that decades-long banking relationships create switching costs that no fintech app can overcome through better UX alone.

Key findingFintech lock-in hierarchy is precise: network rails (Visa/MC) > developer infra (Stripe) > primary banking (Nubank) > merchant POS (Block) > commodity checkout (PayPal). PayPal's decline illustrates structural erosion when substitutability rises. Nubank's $68B is justified by deepest personal financial lock-in: being someone's only bank, only credit card, only savings account.

Key findingSteam's non-transferable game library is the strongest consumer lock-in in digital entertainment. Netflix (325M subs, B<1.0) proves that massive scale with near-zero switching costs produces fragile revenue. The owned-vs-rented divide is the key structural difference: Steam users accumulate assets that deepen lock-in. Netflix users rent access that evaporates on cancellation.

Key findingAmazon Marketplace B reflects seller-side lock-in more than buyer-side.

Key findingPharma lock-in is invisible to consumer analysis but extreme at institutional level. Illumina controls 70-80% of sequencing — the entire field of genomics is structurally dependent on one company's data formats. IQVIA is healthcare's Bloomberg: decades of patient data that cannot be replicated. Veeva is pharma's Salesforce: compliance amplifies switching costs by 3-5x versus generic SaaS.

Key findingSynopsys/Cadence (EDA duopoly) is the most invisible and arguably deepest lock-in in the global economy. Without their software, TSMC cannot receive chip designs. Without TSMC, NVIDIA has no chips. Without NVIDIA, AI stops. The dependency chain: EDA → Foundry → Chip Designer → AI Company → End User. Break any link and the cascade is global.