Cross-section note: this paper reports the 100-platform, 12-sector cross-section as it stood at the date above. The live index has since grown: the Q3-2026 release scored 184 platforms across 18 sectors, and current values differ from those tabulated here. The instrument specification (Sections 3, 5 and Appendix A) is unchanged; only the cross-section is a snapshot.
§ 07 · WORKING PAPER · v3.1 · MARCH 2026
The Black Hole Index™: A Structural Lock-In Measurement Framework for Digital Platforms
Ivan Savich(corresponding · ivan.savich@blackholeindex.com · ORCID 0009-0003-9542-7022)
Independent researcher
ORCID
License
CC BY 4.0
Version
V3.1 ·
Replication
Status
Posted on SSRN · ID 6555158
Note: This paper describes the Q1-2026 baseline (100 platforms, 12 sectors). The live index has since expanded to 184 platforms across 18 sectors (). Updated rankings and quarterly diff are available at /rankings and /diff. A revised paper reflecting the expanded universe is in preparation. Sentences in this paper that later measurement contradicted are listed, with the corrected wording, in a dated corrigendum at /paper-corrigendum-1.md; the paper itself is not re-issued.
Abstract
We propose the Black Hole Index (BHI), a single dimensionless quantity B that measures the structural lock-in of a digital platform as the ratio of its capture surface to its escape surface.
Preliminary validation against annual retention rates for 14 platforms with directly comparable metrics yields Spearman ρ = 0.79 (p < 0.001). Inter-rater reliability study pending.
BHI is intentionally a structural-fact instrument and does not encode normative judgement on competition, ethics, or pricing.
platform economicsswitching costsnetwork effectsmeasurementtechnology adoptionJEL: L86, D83, O33
Cite
@techreport{savich2026bhi,
author = {Savich, Ivan},
title = {The Black Hole Index: A Structural Lock-In
Measurement Framework for Digital Platforms},
institution = {Black Hole Index Project},
year = {2026},
month = mar,
number = {V3.1},
type = {Working Paper},
url = {https://blackholeindex.com/paper},
note = {SSRN Abstract ID: 6555158}
}
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