BHI 3.0·Q1 2026 Bulletin
Last computed 14:32 UTC, Apr 29 2026·Spearman ρ = 0.83·Validation: preliminary
Today's bulletin →
Movers · since 14:32 UTC, Apr 29 2026
PLATFORM PROFILEEBAY

eBay

$42B134M active buyersE-Commerce
1.71
B-index (V3.1)
EVENT HORIZON
Capture0.783
Escape0.458
Key Structural Insight

Lock-in is seller-side and niche-specific. Vintage watch seller with 10,000 reviews cannot move overnight.

Eleven-Parameter Profile

5DATAMEMACTPROCNETCLOSEPORTSUBFALLORGMOM
Data Depth7/10
Memory7/10
Action5/10
Process6/10
Network7/10
Closeness6/10
Portability3/10
Substitutability5/10
Human Fallback6/10
Org Depth4/10
Momentum3/10
Capture Escape Extended

V3.1 Decomposition

ComponentValueFormula
CES₄ capture core0.6221CES(d, m, a, p)
Knowledge synergy σₖ0.7000√(d · m)
Operability synergy σₒ0.5477√(a · p)
Synergy boost1.18721 + 0.3·(σₖ + σₒ)/2
Org-depth multiplier1.20001 + 0.5·o
Momentum multiplier1.09001 + 0.3·t
Total Capture0.7825c·(1+0.5n)·core·syn·org·mom
CES₃ escape core0.4576CES(x, s, h)
Feedback attenuation0.7823max(0.3, 1 − 0.35·core)
Total Escape0.4580ε + escCore · feedback
B = Capture / Escape1.710.783 / 0.458

Scoring Rationale

Years of feedback scores, PowerSeller status, niche dominance (collectibles, auto parts). But stagnant growth (t=3). Amazon and specialized marketplaces fragmenting niches.

Parameter Sensitivity

MARGINAL B-INDEX CHANGE PER ±1 SCORE SHIFT
CLOSE6
+0.57
PORT3
-0.25
ACT5
+0.21
PROC6
+0.19
SUB5
-0.19
DATA7
+0.18
MEM7
+0.18
FALL6
-0.17
ORG4
+0.14
NET7
+0.13
MOM3
+0.09
+ raises B (deepens lock-in) lowers B (aids escape)

Comparable PlatformsE-Commerce (7 peers)

#PlatformTickerB-indexZone
01Amazon MarketplaceAMZN7.77BLACK HOLEProfile →
02MercadoLibreMELI5.87BLACK HOLEProfile →
03Alibaba/TaobaoBABA4.97BLACK HOLEProfile →
04CoupangCPNG3.72BLACK HOLEProfile →
05ShopifySHOP3.15BLACK HOLEProfile →
06Shopee/SeaSE3.03BLACK HOLEProfile →
07PDD/TemuPDD1.86EVENT HORIZONProfile →