BHI 3.1·Q3 2026 Bulletin
Published Jul 5 2026·Spearman ρ = 0.79·Validation: preliminary
Today's bulletin →
Movers · Q3 2026 · Jul 5 2026
PLATFORM PROFILEAAPL

Apple

$3.81T2.2B active devicesBig Tech & SemiconductorsApple ecosystem
4.60
B-index (V3.1)
BLACK HOLE
Capture1.910
Escape0.415
Key Structural Insight

Portability is improving as steering liberalises across the US and EU; Apple's moat is shifting from contractual restriction toward data, network and habit capture.

Eleven-Parameter Profile

5DATAMEMACTPROCNETCLOSEPORTSUBFALLORGMOM
Data Depth8/10
Memory8/10
Action7/10
Process8/10
Network9/10
Closeness9/10
Portability5/10
Substitutability4/10
Human Fallback4/10
Org Depth6/10
Momentum6/10
Capture Escape Extended

V3.1 Decomposition

ComponentValueFormula
CES₄ capture core0.7744CES(d, m, a, p)
Knowledge synergy σₖ0.8000√(d · m)
Operability synergy σₒ0.7483√(a · p)
Synergy boost1.23221 + 0.3·(σₖ + σₒ)/2
Org-depth multiplier1.30001 + 0.5·o
Momentum multiplier1.18001 + 0.3·t
Total Capture1.9102c·(1+0.5n)·core·syn·org·mom
CES₃ escape core0.4321CES(x, s, h)
Feedback attenuation0.7290max(0.3, 1 − 0.35·core)
Total Escape0.4150ε + escCore · feedback
B = Capture / Escape4.601.910 / 0.415

Scoring Rationale

Ecosystem-level scoring: iCloud data accumulation (d=8), 15+ years of purchase history and personalisation (m=8), iMessage/FaceTime/AirDrop network effects (n=9) and primary-device closeness (c=9) drive capture; escape remains limited by ecosystem-wide substitutability (s=4) and smartphone dependency (h=4). Portability was re-assessed from 3 to 5 in Q3-2026: external purchase links have been mandatory in the US since 30 April 2025 (the Ninth Circuit later permitted a below-27% fee and the Supreme Court granted certiorari on the contempt question on 30 June 2026), and Apple's June 2025 EU terms replaced the formal steering prohibition with a multi-component fee structure. Disclosure: this was a rubric reassessment incorporating facts that partly pre-date April 2026, not a wholly new quarter-on-quarter structural change - see blackholeindex.com/cma-steering-response, section 3.

Parameter Sensitivity

MARGINAL B-INDEX CHANGE PER ±1 SCORE SHIFT
CLOSE9
+1.02
FALL4
-0.57
SUB4
-0.57
PORT5
-0.51
ACT7
+0.46
DATA8
+0.43
MEM8
+0.43
PROC8
+0.43
ORG6
+0.35
NET9
+0.32
MOM6
+0.23
+ raises B (deepens lock-in) lowers B (aids escape)

Comparable PlatformsBig Tech & Semiconductors (11 peers)

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07MetaMETA5.22BLACK HOLEProfile →
08QualcommQCOM5.21BLACK HOLEProfile →
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