BHI 3.1·Q3 2026 Bulletin
Published Jul 5 2026·Spearman ρ = 0.79·Validation: preliminary
Today's bulletin →
Movers · Q3 2026 · Jul 5 2026
§ CHANGELOG · RELEASE HISTORY

Changelog

Every quarterly release, model update, and universe change documented for full transparency and reproducibility.

Q3-2026

July 5, 2026Model V3.1
  • 184 platforms across 18 sectors; 34 evidence-verified score changes across 34 platforms (all sourced)
  • Dominant theme — agentic autonomy shipped: Copilot a+1 (computer-using agents GA + Scout), ChatGPT a+1 (Workspace agents), Salesforce a+1, ServiceNow a+1, Atlassian p+1, Notion p+1, Adobe a+1, HubSpot a+1, Figma a+1
  • Regulators pried walls open: Apple x+1 (iOS 26.5 DMA interop), App Store x+1 (9th-Circuit steering), WhatsApp x+1 (DMA 1:1 messaging), Adobe x+1 (FTC cancellation settlement), Tether x+1 (MiCA EU cutoff), Microsoft n−1 (OpenAI Azure de-exclusivity)
  • Semiconductors deepened: TSMC c+1 ($20B Arizona), Synopsys/Cadence d+1 (Ansys Multiphysics Fusion GA), Zscaler d+1 (Symmetry)
  • Biggest mover: TSMC B 10.91 → 12.28 (+1.37)
  • Notable: Epic Systems 11.91 → 12.34 (KLAS share gains), Oracle Health 8.43 → 8.20 (KLAS share loss), CATL 6.86 → 7.10 (swap network), Palantir 9.66 → 9.90
  • Mean B 4.39 → 4.41; 174 / 184 platforms above B=1
  • Ceiling-bound reinforcement (event occurred, B unchanged): SAP, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, DTCC, NVIDIA, Workday
  • Regulatory context (proposals, not yet scored): EU DMA Google search-data-sharing draft, CMA Microsoft SMS investigation, US CLARITY Act, CMS FHIR prior-auth rule, AWS preliminary DMA gatekeeper finding, Visa/Mastercard swipe-fee settlement
  • Tooling: update-score.ts refactored to import the canonical V3 formula from lib/model.ts (single source of truth); full 184-platform parity re-verified
  • Ecosystem groups (Phase 1): 37 platforms tagged into 12 parent groups by operational control (Microsoft ×6, Alphabet ×6, Meta ×4, Apple ×3, Amazon ×3, Oracle ×3, SpaceX, Uber, Salesforce, RELX, Binance, Deutsche Telekom ×2 each) after a full-universe ownership sweep; new "By group" view on Rankings — individual B-scores only, no aggregate group score (ecosystem gravity metric is a separate research track)

Q2-2026

June 4, 2026Model V3.1
  • Universe expanded to 184 platforms across 18 sectors (+84 platforms, +6 new sectors)
  • New sectors: Telecom, Cybersecurity, Automotive, Education/Research, Healthcare IT, Industrial Software
  • 10 evidence-verified score changes across 8 platforms (all with sourced audit trail)
  • AI action scores rose: Copilot a+1, ChatGPT a+1 o+1, Grok m+1 a+1, Claude o+1, Gemini c+1
  • Regulatory impact: Apple x+1 (DMA EU interop), App Store x+1 (CMA UK commitments)
  • Chainlink p+1 (CCIP on AWS Marketplace)
  • Biggest mover: Apple App Store B 6.13 → 5.64 (−0.49)
  • New Black Holes: DTCC (B=15.44), Epic Systems (B=11.91), Reliance Jio (B=9.18)
  • ISOC grant application submitted (R-202604-29006, $200K)

Q1-2026

April 29, 2026Model V3.1
  • 100 platforms scored across 12 sectors
  • V3.1 model with CES aggregation, synergy corrections, org-depth and momentum multipliers
  • Spearman ρ = 0.77 (p < 0.001) preliminary validation against 14-platform retention cohort
  • Single-evaluator scoring; inter-rater reliability study pending (target ICC > 0.75)
  • Investment signal: Q4-Q1 spread +13.4pp, Information Ratio 0.55
  • Added: Cursor (Anysphere), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Perplexity, Apple Intelligence
  • CMA UK submission accepted — Apple/Google app store lock-in analysis
  • Platform detail pages, sector deep dives, correlation heatmap, advanced search
  • Embeddable B-Score badges for journalists and analysts
  • Quarterly diff view with zone migration tracking
  • Public API with JSON/CSV export (CC-BY 4.0)

Q4-2025

December 31, 2025Model V3.0
  • Initial 100-platform universe established
  • 12 sectors: AI, Crypto Assets, Crypto Infra, Social, Tech, SaaS, Banks, Fintech, Gaming, E-Commerce, Pharma, Critical Infrastructure
  • V3.0 model specification with 11 parameters
  • B = Capture / Escape formula finalized
  • SSRN working paper submitted (Abstract ID: 6555158)
  • Website launched at blackholeindex.com
Next release: Q4-2026 · October 2026 · Quarterly re-score of 184 platforms