BHI 3.1·Bulletin
Validation: preliminary
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Highest B
WeChatB 17.03DTCCB 15.44Synopsys/CadenceB 13.50PJMB 12.53EpicB 12.34TSMCB 12.28FAAB 12.20NationalB 11.27PalantirB 9.90ASMLB 9.62RelianceB 9.18VisaB 8.82WeChatB 17.03DTCCB 15.44Synopsys/CadenceB 13.50PJMB 12.53EpicB 12.34TSMCB 12.28FAAB 12.20NationalB 11.27PalantirB 9.90ASMLB 9.62RelianceB 9.18VisaB 8.82
§ CHANGELOG · RELEASE HISTORY

Changelog

Every quarterly release and model update is documented here, and each release names its notable score changes. Corrected 8 September 2026: two entries below described those changes as “evidence-verified” and “sourced”. They are not. The 42 recorded reasons across all published quarters are free-text notes; none carries a locator, and 26 of the 68 change events have no reason at all. The reasons, and the gaps, are published at /api/platform/<id>/history.

Q4-2026

September 15, 2026Model V3.1
  • 184 platforms across 18 sectors; no score changed. Measured against Q3-2026, /api/diff reports 0 moved up, 0 moved down, 184 unchanged, 0 zone migrations and 0 new platforms
  • A quarter in which nothing moved is published as one. The quarter was sealed and subsequently published by promotion of the release pointer, and no platform changed score, zone or rank
  • Added 19 September 2026. This release was published on 15 September and had no entry here for four days, while the line above this list said that every quarterly release is documented. The gap was found by auditing this site against its own data; no check failed, because no check covered it

Q3-2026 · interim

September 2, 2026Model V3.1
  • Cursor (Anysphere) promoted into the SpaceX group: merger effective August 14, 2026 per SpaceX Form 8-K (accession 0001628280-26-056945), wholly owned subsidiary; SpaceX group now ×3 (Grok, X, Cursor); Tesla UBO note updated; no score changed
  • Rankings "By group" view expanded: per-group ecosystem map (scored platforms + selected unscored group entities), descriptive member statistics, and group-contour lists — no aggregate group score is computed; the pinned Q3-2026 release CSV is unaffected (it carries no group column)

Q3-2026

July 5, 2026Model V3.1
  • 184 platforms across 18 sectors; 34 score changes across 34 platforms, each with a recorded reason
  • Dominant theme — agentic autonomy shipped: Copilot a+1 (computer-using agents GA + Scout), ChatGPT a+1 (Workspace agents), Salesforce a+1, ServiceNow a+1, Atlassian p+1, Notion p+1, Adobe a+1, HubSpot a+1, Figma a+1
  • Regulators pried walls open: Apple x+1 (iOS 26.5 DMA interop), App Store x+1 (9th-Circuit steering), WhatsApp x+1 (DMA 1:1 messaging), Adobe x+1 (FTC cancellation settlement), Tether x+1 (MiCA EU cutoff), Microsoft n−1 (OpenAI Azure de-exclusivity)
  • Semiconductors deepened: TSMC c+1 ($20B Arizona), Synopsys/Cadence d+1 (Ansys Multiphysics Fusion GA), Zscaler d+1 (Symmetry)
  • Biggest mover: TSMC B 10.91 → 12.28 (+1.37)
  • Notable: Epic Systems 11.91 → 12.34 (KLAS share gains), Oracle Health 8.43 → 8.20 (KLAS share loss), CATL 6.86 → 7.10 (swap network), Palantir 9.66 → 9.90
  • Mean B 4.39 → 4.41; 174 / 184 platforms above B=1
  • Ceiling-bound reinforcement (event occurred, B unchanged): SAP, Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, DTCC, NVIDIA, Workday
  • Regulatory context (proposals, not yet scored): EU DMA Google search-data-sharing draft, CMA Microsoft SMS investigation, US CLARITY Act, CMS FHIR prior-auth rule, AWS preliminary DMA gatekeeper finding, Visa/Mastercard swipe-fee settlement
  • Tooling: update-score.ts refactored to import the canonical V3 formula from lib/model.ts (single source of truth); full 184-platform parity re-verified
  • Ecosystem groups (Phase 1): 37 platforms tagged into 12 parent groups by operational control (Microsoft ×6, Alphabet ×6, Meta ×4, Apple ×3, Amazon ×3, Oracle ×3, SpaceX, Uber, Salesforce, RELX, Binance, Deutsche Telekom ×2 each) after a full-universe ownership sweep; new "By group" view on Rankings — individual B-scores only, no aggregate group score (ecosystem gravity metric is a separate research track)

Q2-2026

June 4, 2026Model V3.1
  • Universe expanded to 184 platforms across 18 sectors (+84 platforms, +6 new sectors)
  • New sectors: Telecom, Cybersecurity, Automotive, Education/Research, Healthcare IT, Industrial Software
  • 10 score changes across 8 platforms, each with a recorded reason
  • AI action scores rose: Copilot a+1, ChatGPT a+1 o+1, Grok m+1 a+1, Claude o+1, Gemini c+1
  • Regulatory impact: Apple x+1 (DMA EU interop), App Store x+1 (CMA UK commitments)
  • Chainlink p+1 (CCIP on AWS Marketplace)
  • Biggest mover: Apple App Store B 6.13 → 5.64 (−0.49)
  • New Black Holes: DTCC (B=15.44), Epic Systems (B=11.91), Reliance Jio (B=9.18)
  • ISOC grant application submitted (R-202604-29006, $200K)

Q1-2026

April 29, 2026Model V3.1
  • 100 platforms scored across 12 sectors
  • V3.1 model with CES aggregation, synergy corrections, org-depth and momentum multipliers
  • Spearman ρ = 0.77 (p < 0.001) preliminary validation against 14-platform retention cohort
  • Single-evaluator scoring; inter-rater reliability study pending (target ICC > 0.75)
  • Investment signal: Q4-Q1 spread +13.4pp, Information Ratio 0.55
  • Added: Apple Intelligence, Cursor (Anysphere), Palantir, SAP (corrected 13 September 2026 against the archived 96-platform launch file; this line previously named Hyperliquid and Perplexity, which were in the launch universe)
  • CMA UK submission — Apple/Google app store lock-in analysis; receipt acknowledged by the Digital Markets Unit, 13 Apr 2026
  • Platform detail pages, sector deep dives, correlation heatmap, advanced search
  • Embeddable B-Score badges for journalists and analysts
  • Quarterly diff view with zone migration tracking
  • Public API with JSON/CSV export (CC-BY 4.0)

Q4-2025

December 31, 2025Model V3.0
  • Launch universe: 96 platforms across 12 sectors (corrected 13 September 2026 — this entry previously said 100, which is the Q1-2026 count after four additions)
  • Provenance, stated 13 September 2026: the Q4-2025 rows in the quarterly history (API and platform pages) are a modelled back-projection generated from the Q1-2026 vintage by scripts/seed-q4-2025.ts as a one-time cold-start backfill. They are not observed scores, they include the four platforms first scored in Q1-2026, and no bulletin, scoring record or archived file holds observed Q4-2025 scores. The first observed vintage is Q1-2026. The rows are kept and labelled as modelled rather than deleted; the correction is recorded in the public record
  • 12 sectors: AI, Crypto Assets, Crypto Infra, Social, Tech, SaaS, Banks, Fintech, Gaming, E-Commerce, Pharma, Critical Infrastructure
  • V3.0 model specification with 11 parameters
  • B = Capture / Escape formula finalized
  • SSRN working paper submitted (Abstract ID: 6555158)
  • Website launched at blackholeindex.com
Next release: · Quarterly re-score of 184 platforms